COVID-19 Cases In Lagos May Rise To 39,000 - Commissioner For Health

Lagos State Commissioner for Health, Prof. Akin Abayomi has revealed that Lagos state's coronavirus cases might rise to 39,000 in subsequent weeks if strict measures are not put in place to curtail the spread of the disease. 

While speaking at a press conference on Friday March 27, the Commissioner stressed that they are still tracing about 3,000 primary contacts of those infected with the disease. 

The Commissioner further disclosed that the mathematical projection was that the state could have up to 39,000 cases, and might become real if contacts are not observing self-isolation or embracing social distancing, adding that with social distancing, the figure could be limited to 13,000 cases.

Pro. Akin Abayomi said; 

“Our mathematical modelling shows that the worst-case scenario is that we may see up to 39,000 cases in Lagos. 

“If we add social distancing to active contact tracing, then we will be able to bend the curve further.

“The figures may seem alarming at this point, but this is just to emphasise to the Lagos community to follow instructions of the incident commander to make sure that we practise social distancing.

“Looking at the same timeframe from the introduction of the index case, you can see that Lagos state is not seen anywhere near what Spain, Italy and Iran are showing.

“So, at weeks two and three of our index case, we are flat and at week four, we have 37 cases; while at the same fourth week, Italy, Iran and Spain had more than 20,000 cases.

“So, we are doing something right in the state. Then if we continue to do that, we will remain on the lower trajectory.

“It shows we are keeping the curve flat which is allowing us to keep up with the number of cases we have so far.”

It would be recalled that Nigeria has recorded 65 Coronavirus cases and Lagos State is the epicenter with 44 cases.